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Report: Wisconsin Catholics will decide Trump vs. Biden

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Wisconsin Catholic Tribune News Service Oct 8, 2020

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Catholic voters will decide the November election.

The road to the U.S. presidency in 2020 runs through Catholic parishes in Wisconsin.

A Wisconsin Catholic Tribune analysis says Catholics were decisive in Trump’s victory, comprising an estimated 31.5 percent of Wisconsin’s electorate in 2016, or about 878,000 of the 2.787 million Wisconsin ballots cast for president.

Catholic voters turned out at a higher rate than the average voter. Only 24 percent of Wisconsin’s population is Catholic, according to state archdiocese estimates. The state has 1.425 million Catholics and 5.814 million people.

Trump won 1,405,284 votes to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 1,382,536, a margin of 22,748, or 0.77 percent.

Wisconsin’s most Catholic counties came out stronger for Trump in 2016 than they had for 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney. The 12 counties with the highest percentage of Catholic voters delivered 18,064 more votes for Trump and Romney, the Wisconsin Catholic Tribune  analysis found.

Wisconsin is home to 719 parishes across five dioceses--Milwaukee, Madison, La Crosse, Green Bay and Superior.

The Wisconsin Catholic Tribune analysis found Trump significantly outperformed 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney in La Crosse (+22,462 votes), Green Bay (+22,961) and Superior (+14,350) dioceses, home to 654,001 Wisconsin Catholic voters.

Both 2020 campaigns are taking Wisconsin Catholics seriously.

“Catholics for Trump” officially launched in May; it had planned a kick-off event in Milwaukee that was cancelled due to the corona virus.

Democratic political analyst and former Barack Obama faith outreach director Michael Wear said Catholic voters will determine the fate of party nominee Joe Biden.

“Catholics are the make-or-break demographic in this next election,” he said. “That was obvious across the Midwest in the last (presidential) campaign. There is no reason not to be asking questions about what Catholic voters are thinking at this point in the game.”

“Ultimate swing voters”

Catholics have a long history of picking presidential winners.

In 2012, Reuters/Ipsos exit polling found President Barack Obama won 51 percent of the Catholic vote, to GOP contender Mitt Romney’s 48 percent.

A Pew Research poll in 2008 found Obama won 54 percent of Catholics to John McCain’s 45 percent.

Pew found that Catholics supported Democrat Al Gore over Republican George W. Bush in 2000 (50-47). But they swung to Bush in 2004, giving the incumbent 52 percent of their votes to 47 percent for challenger John Kerry.

According to exit polls, after backing Republican George H.W. Bush in his 1988 win over Democrat Michael Dukakis, 52-47, Catholics supported Democrat Bill Clinton twice.

Clinton won the Catholic vote 44-36 over the incumbent Bush in 1992 and 53-37 over challenger Republican Bob Dole in 1996.

Catholics also backed Republican Ronald Reagan twice-- 49-42 over incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980 and 54-45 over Democrat challenger Walter Mondale in 1984.

In 1976, Catholics backed Democrat Jimmy Carter, 54-44. 

In 1972, they supported Republican Richard Nixon, 54-44.

Wisconsin’s Catholic Vote, 2012 vs 2016

Catholic voters put Donald Trump over the top in Wisconsin in 2016. Which counties made the difference?

CountyDioceseWCTI

Pop.Trump improvement
Menominee CountyGreen Bay132.334,579278
Kewaunee CountyGreen Bay114.4920,3602,399
Manitowoc CountyGreen Bay98.2379,4077,470
Taylor CountySuperior94.7620,3562,353
Grant CountyMadison88.4451,8285,639
Brown CountyGreen Bay88.25259,78611,524
Iron CountySuperior87.215,715811
Portage CountyLa Crosse84.2470,5994,246
Langlade CountyGreen Bay83.9519,1641,933
Outagamie CountyGreen Bay83.79184,75411,749
Forest CountyGreen Bay81.709,0181,457
Lafayette CountyMadison81.6616,7351,911
Wood CountyLa Crosse81.3173,2746,147
Price CountySuperior78.5613,4901,894
Crawford CountyLa Crosse74.4216,2881,980
Ashland CountySuperior72.7415,7121,871
Door CountyGreen Bay71.9927,4391,794
Pepin CountyLa Crosse71.517,262965
Marathon CountyLa Crosse66.86135,2648,280
Clark CountyLa Crosse66.0334,4913,180
Waushara CountyGreen Bay65.9324,1162,640
Calumet CountyGreen Bay65.0549,8072,661
Oneida CountySuperior65.0235,3453,109
Trempealeau CountyLa Crosse64.6129,4383,623
Marinette CountyGreen Bay64.5340,5376,015
Green Lake CountyMadison64.0718,7571,521
Fond du Lac CountyMilwaukee63.66102,3155,677
Waukesha CountyMilwaukee63.02398,879-17,699
Washington CountyMilwaukee62.03134,535-724
Iowa CountyMadison61.6823,6201,958
Douglas CountySuperior61.0943,4025,473
Rusk CountySuperior60.4214,1832,114
Ozaukee CountyMilwaukee59.4988,284-6,627
Buffalo CountyLa Crosse58.4013,1671,724
Sawyer CountySuperior56.4716,3701,823
Juneau CountyLa Crosse55.9226,4193,919
Oconto CountyGreen Bay55.8837,5565,493
Chippewa CountyLa Crosse54.9563,6355,952
Lincoln CountySuperior53.9027,8483,138
Florence CountyGreen Bay52.564,337539
Monroe CountyLa Crosse50.0045,5024,235
La Crosse CountyLa Crosse49.07117,8504,924
Bayfield CountySuperior48.3914,9921,599
Jefferson CountyMadison47.1384,6523,491
Winnebago CountyGreen Bay47.05169,9269,720
Sauk CountyMadison46.7863,5965,719
Columbia CountyMadison46.4856,9544,784
Racine CountyMilwaukee46.41195,3987,775
Marquette CountyMadison45.4715,2071,926
Barron CountySuperior45.2045,2525,161
Shawano CountyGreen Bay45.1741,0094,664
Kenosha CountyMilwaukee45.07168,33010,145
Sheboygan CountyMilwaukee44.20115,2053,578
St. Croix CountySuperior44.0687,9173,034
Green CountyMadison41.3636,8642,921
Walworth CountyMilwaukee41.28103,0133,688
Washburn CountySuperior39.1315,6891,869
Adams CountyLa Crosse38.1420,0734,101
Dodge CountyMilwaukee37.7387,7766,226
Pierce CountyLa Crosse37.1341,6032,718
Waupaca CountyGreen Bay36.6751,4445,286
Rock CountyMadison36.28161,76910,849
Richland CountyLa Crosse35.9817,5391,840
Vilas CountySuperior32.7021,5931,602
Eau Claire CountyLa Crosse32.05102,9913,440
Vernon CountyLa Crosse27.9630,5162,745
Dunn CountyLa Crosse25.9644,4983,554
Burnett CountySuperior25.9215,2581,900
Jackson CountyLa Crosse25.8720,5062,484
Polk CountySuperior25.7043,3494,257
Dane CountyMadison23.66529,843-13,809
Milwaukee CountyMilwaukee16.70954,20914,619
TOTALS

5,778,394241,255

Sources: Wisconsin Elections Commission, U.S. Census, Association of Religion Data Archives

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Donald J. Trump for President Inc. • Biden for President

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